Latin America Economics Focus Banxico set to tolerate higher inflation We think that the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) reaction function will gradually tilt towards tolerating higher inflation. As a result, we think that interest rates in Mexico will stay low for... 14th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 1.1% m/m rise in Mexican industrial output in November, coupled with more timely auto production data, suggests that the sector added around 1.5%-pts to q/q GDP growth in Q4. Moreover, we... 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Jabs arriving as second waves hit The escalation of new COVID-19 infections and tightening of restrictions across the region, most recently in Bogotá and Buenos Aires, poses a clear downside risk to our GDP forecasts for the first... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Latin America’s elections The pandemic has created fertile ground for populists to win presidential elections in Ecuador, Chile and Peru this year. That would have the biggest adverse market reaction in the former, and could... 7th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Mexican inflation, to 3.2% in December, was largely driven by a drop in food inflation. With headline inflation likely to stay within Banxico’s 2-4% target range in the coming... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The further fall in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.2% y/y in the first two weeks of December, was largely driven by a drop in food inflation. Nonetheless, underlying price pressures remain muted... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccine plans and politics, Cuba libre-lisation Policymakers across Latin America are stepping up efforts to distribute vaccines, with Mexico and Chile set to roll out the (approved) Pzifer/BioNTech jab within just a few weeks. However, most of the... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: dovish tilt suggests easing cycle to resume In typically conservative fashion, Banxico’s left its policy rate at 4.25% despite the weakness of inflation and the deteriorating near-term outlook. However, the dovish statement reaffirms our view... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Difficult end to a dismal year Recoveries in Latin America are under threat from a fresh rise in new COVID-19 cases, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Chile. Policymakers in all three countries have tightened restrictions which... 16th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New faces at Banxico, BanRep and Brazil’s Congress Mexican President López Obrador’s third appointment to Banxico’s Board, Galia Borja Gómez, to replace Deputy Governor Javier Guzmán, could mark a gradual shift away from the central bank’s traditional... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The robust 2.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October suggests that the economy started Q4 on a solid footing. But more timely indicators imply that the recovery struggled over the rest... 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five things to watch for in 2021 Latin America will be glad to see the back of 2020, although 2021 will hardly be plain sailing. In general, the hangover from weak public finances will hold back the region’s economic recovery... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation to 3.3% in November was largely driven by a drop in food and fuel prices, although underlying price pressures also remained soft. With inflation likely to settle... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Vaccines to deliver healthy dose of support to Lat Am Given the recent positive vaccine developments, we are revising up our GDP forecasts across the region. Among the major economies, Chile and Mexico are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries while... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the state of recoveries in Latin America A fresh rise in COVID-19 cases in Brazil and Mexico threaten to derail their recoveries in late-Q4 and Q1. On the flipside, the near-term outlook is relatively bright in Argentina, Peru and Chile. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nikhil Sangani discusses Chile on Al Jazeera "One thing Chile has in its favour is that its debt position is very low, especially compared to others in Latin America...In their latest budget, [the government] said they're going to keep spending... 28th November 2020 · Aljazeera
