Chile Peso Joins Pound, Dollar on Vaccination Winners List “Chile is motoring ahead in Latin America’s vaccine race,” said Nikhil Sanghani, an analyst at Capital Economics. “Policy makers at a national and regional level had a clear plan to transport jabs to... 22nd February 2021 · Bloomberg
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s blackouts, Argentine policymaking woes The energy crisis in Texas has led to power outages across Mexico this week, particularly in the northern manufacturing heartland, which we estimate may knock about 5% off industrial production this... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: the next fallen angel? It’s unlikely that Colombia’s government will achieve its lofty fiscal targets over the coming years, which may prompt a loss of its investment grade rating – an outcome that is not fully priced into... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2020) The robust 6.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 marks a solid end to 2020, but the recovery will slow sharply in Q1 due to the tightening of restrictions. 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB outlook, Chile’s vaccine drive, Ecuador’s election The approval of a bill to make Brazil’s central bank (BCB) independent could, in the long term, help to reduce inflation and bond yields. In the meantime, the BCB’s governor has sought to downplay... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico in a dovish mood but additional cuts unlikely The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to cuts its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, suggests that policymakers are more dovish than we had thought. But the initial market reaction – significantly... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Latin America’s vaccine rollout Chile is motoring ahead in Latin America’s vaccine race and it may be on course to start lifting stringent lockdown measures by mid-Q2. Other countries may follow suit in Q3, which feeds into our... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The small 0.1% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in December confirms that the economy lost significant momentum at the end of last year. The renewed economic weakness may help to convince... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation in January makes Thursday’s interest rate decision a close call, although we still think a 25bp rate cut is more likely than not. Meanwhile, the further increase in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Colombia Trading Like Junk Shows Dilemma Facing Poor Nations “Policy makers are walking this tightrope between trying to help support the economy and not aggravate public debt risks,” said Nikhil Sanghani, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “In... 8th February 2021 · Bloomberg
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador election: all eyes on debt risks There seems to be little appetite for harsh IMF-mandated fiscal austerity among the leading candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election this week. The public finances will therefore remain in dire... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) The robust 0.9% m/m rise in Brazil’s industrial production caps off a strong recovery in the sector over the second half of 2020. But the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and the rampant second wave of... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The solid 3.1% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 meant that the economy had recouped over 70% of its losses from the first half of 2020. However, the recent surge in new COVID-19 cases will cause the... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A challenging Q1 The surge in COVID-19 cases and tightening of containment measures across most of the region are likely to bring the economic recovery in Latin America to a standstill in Q1. High-frequency mobility... 28th January 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Vaccines won’t heal all scars While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after... 26th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 3.3% y/y over the first half of January, was largely driven by higher fuel prices and is unlikely to be a major concern for the central bank. We continue to... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
