Argentina Gains Room to Breathe With Crucial Debt Deal: For Now "Taken together, these deals will give the government some much-need respite as it tackles the devastating fallout from the coronavirus crisis," Nikhil Sanghani at Capital Economics said in a note... 3rd September 2020 · New York Times
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s debt deal The completion of a deal to restructure almost all $66.2bn of Argentina’s international sovereign bonds will give the government some much-needed breathing space over the coming years, as will an... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Diverging outlook for Lat Am local currency bonds Local currency government bond markets in Latin America generally came under pressure this month, but we think that most will rally over the rest of the year. In Chile and Peru, while local currency... 27th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First waves still the big concern A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer... 25th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% in the first half of August, the upper end of Banxico’s target range, will probably prompt the central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle. But with... 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of Q2 GDP and the recovery so far The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker Mexican inflation to drive more Banxico cuts Headline inflation in Mexico looks set to fall towards 3% over the coming months as both food and core inflation soften. We think that will give Banxico scope to cut its policy rate by an additional... 18th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The solid 17.9% m/m rebound in Mexican industrial production in June was largely driven by the reopening of auto factories. While production appears to have strengthened in July, further gains will... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & Ecuador’s debt deals, Brazil’s recovery Governments in both Argentina and Ecuador managed to reach debt restricting deals with bondholders this week but, in both cases, it looks like unlikely that debt will be sustainable over the medium... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional recovery off to a slow start The number of new daily coronavirus cases in the region has continued to rise, with only Chile among the major economies appearing to get its outbreak under control. Restrictions have been lifted much... 31st July 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still grappling with virus outbreaks Much of Latin America, South Africa, and parts of Asia – notably India and the Philippines – are still struggling to contain their first waves of coronavirus. And while policymakers in these countries... 31st July 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 17.3% q/q slump in Mexico’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be one of the largest peak-to-trough falls in the emerging world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, and the US... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexican pensions, Pemex report, Brazil’s tax reform Mexican President López Obrador’s pension reform will help to alleviate old-age poverty but, by placing the burden for higher contributions squarely with employers, it may lead to greater layoffs and... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
