Latin America Economics Update Pemex default risks rising Our oil price forecasts are consistent with a 30% drop in Pemex’s revenues this year, which suggests the firm will need additional state support to service its large debts. However, with the... 16th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Coronavirus deepens Argentina’s debt crisis The effects of the coronavirus will push Argentina’s economy into an even deeper recession and make the government more tempted to unilaterally halt payments on its international bonds. While we think... 7th April 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First EM GDP contraction in post-war era The real-time economic and market disruption from the coronavirus means that much of the data released during the past month offers little insight into current developments in the emerging world... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America set for a deep recession The outbreak of the coronavirus in Latin America has developed rapidly over the past few weeks. This Chart Book will focus on the most timely measures of activity to get a better sense of the... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2020) The further fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of March will allow the central bank to lower the Selic rate by a further 50bp in the near term. But the scope for aggressive easing is limited. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Despite Mexican inflation remaining above target in early March, we think that Banxico will follow up its emergency 50bp rate cut last week with around 200bp of further easing in the coming quarters. 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the oil market rout The sharp drop in oil prices won’t cause major economic strains in Saudi Arabia or Russia, suggesting that they will raise output and oil prices will remain low over the course of this year. But... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMI slump may underestimate coronavirus hit The collapse in the EM manufacturing PMI to an 11-year low in February all but confirms that EM growth has fallen to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. But the survey is yet to fully... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin American markets in the firing line Latin American currencies and equities have been among the worst performers in the emerging world this month as fears about the spread of the coronavirus have intensified. The region has limited... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The coronavirus impact: what we know so far The coronavirus is severely impacting China’s economy and the incoming data suggest that this is spilling over to other economies, particularly in Emerging Asia. Tourist arrivals to Thailand are down... 20th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: what to make of the IMF’s latest review The IMF’s (belated) announcement that Argentina’s public debt is “unsustainable” removes any doubt that private bondholders will need to stomach large haircuts in a restructuring. But investors are... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Buenos Aires bluff backfires, Chilean growth rebounds Argentine policymakers endured two setbacks this week, after the province of Buenos Aires failed to reprofile a $250mn capital payment and only 10% of investors accepted a sovereign debt swap worth $1... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
