Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three key questions on the Buenos Aires debt saga The province of Buenos Aires could feasibly default on a $250mn payment on Wednesday. In this Update, we answer three key questions about the current situation, the possible outcomes for Argentina’s... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Coronavirus fears hit Latin American markets The decline in energy and metals prices caused by concerns about the coronavirus took a heavy toll on the region’s financial markets in the last few weeks. The Brazilian and Chilean currencies have... 30th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Clues on Argentine debt, new forecasts Recent developments in Argentina, including the ongoing fiasco over Buenos Aires’ provincial debt, suggest that the national government is unlikely to reach a swift agreement with creditors to... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A fitful recovery Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the... 21st January 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s stuttering recovery, Buenos Aires troubles The softness of the latest Brazilian activity data adds to our view that the economic recovery this year will disappoint. Elsewhere, Argentina’s federal government refused to bail out the province of... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Old tricks in Argentina, Mexico’s minimum wage hike Argentina’s government is resorting to old habits, having turned to deficit monetisation and drawing down the central bank’s FX reserves in recent weeks. While these unorthodox measures will help to... 3rd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI stable but external backdrop challenging The PMIs for December suggest that EM manufacturers, barring those in Latin America, ended 2019 on a firmer footing. Nonetheless, the external backdrop will remain challenging in 2020. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The fall in Mexican inflation to 2.6% y/y in the first two weeks of December, from 3.0% in the full month of November, will pave the way for Banxico to continue its easing cycle in the coming months... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina reprofiling, Brazilian beef & Mexico rates Argentina’s government has postponed the payment of around $9bn on Treasury bills until August 2020, reaffirming our view that a restructuring of local-law debts was on the cards. However, maturity... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guessing about Guzmán, USMCA deal finalised Comments from Argentina’s President Fernández and his economy minister Martín Guzmán this week provided some relief that they don’t plan to return to ‘kirchnerismo’. But lingering uncertainty over the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
