Recent developments in Argentina, including the ongoing fiasco over Buenos Aires’ provincial debt, suggest that the national government is unlikely to reach a swift agreement with creditors to restructure its sovereign debt. The government also formally indicated that it might support a debt write-down – a step away from the model of maturity extensions it previously proposed. Meanwhile, we published a range of non-consensus forecasts in our latest Outlook. We’re the most pessimistic forecaster for Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, but the most optimistic for Peru.
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