Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 4.7% y/y in March, was driven once again by higher fuel inflation. We think this trend has a bit further to run, but the central bank is likely to look... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina & the IMF: 22nd time lucky? We suspect that Argentina’s government and the IMF will thrash out a new deal, the 22 nd in their history, but we doubt that this will lead to the sustained turnaround in policymaking that is needed... 7th April 2021 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile rate hikes on the horizon, Brazilian payrolls Chile’s central bank was notably less dovish at its meeting this week, supporting our view that the central bank will begin a tightening cycle later this year, most likely in Q4. Elsewhere, while... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Bumpy regional recovery faces another hurdle Latin America’s recovery has been far from plain sailing, and the recent rise in new COVID-19 cases across the region is yet another setback. This is most worrying in Brazil, where the health system... 30th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico begins a long pause The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to keep its policy rate at 4.00% is a clear signal that its easing cycle is done and dusted. While this indicates a cautious shift at the central bank, we... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The continued rise in Mexican inflation to 4.1% y/y over the first half of March, above the central bank’s 2-4% target range, will almost certainly put an end to Banxico’s easing cycle. We think that... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian tax reform, vaccines and Brazil’s struggles A tax reform bill in Colombia, that will be sent to Congress next week, has slipped under the radar but this legislation could have a major bearing on the country’s sovereign investment grade rating... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2020) The 6.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 shows the economy headed into 2021 with significant momentum. And the outlook is bright given the country’s swift vaccine progress. As a result, we are revising... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal worries in Brazil, Argentina’s inflation dilemma Fiscal concerns are growing in Brazil as Congress approved a bill yesterday which opens the door to more fiscal support (outside the limits of the spending cap). And pressure for higher public... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The small 0.2% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in January masks a concerning 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output. The sector will have also fared poorly in February following the... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal U-turn to support the recovery The Colombian government’s shift away from its austere fiscal stance will lead to higher public debt and, more likely than not, a loss of its sovereign investment grade rating. But, from an economic... 11th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.8% y/y in February, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. This trend has further to run in the coming months which, alongside the recent... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico staying put, Brazil’s Petrobras mess The hit to Mexico’s financial markets during the recent rout in global bond markets adds to the reasons to think that Banxico’s easing cycle is done and dusted. Brazilian financial markets were also... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Populism rearing its head…again The tide is turning towards populist policymaking in Latin America once again. Most notably, Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s move to fire Petrobras’ CEO, Roberto Castello Branco, may be a prelude to... 25th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Feb) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6% y/y, in the middle of this month shifts the balance a bit further an interest rate hike at the next Copom meeting in March, but there are reasons to think that... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Staying relatively upbeat on Peru’s economy The strong Q4 GDP data for Peru suggests that the economy was heading into 2021 with significant momentum. And while there are growing downside risks from rising COVID-19 cases and a politically... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
