The escalation of new COVID-19 infections and tightening of restrictions across the region, most recently in Bogotá and Buenos Aires, poses a clear downside risk to our GDP forecasts for the first quarter of the year. Vaccines can’t come quickly enough in Latin America. Fortunately, there has been good news on this front with inoculations underway and procurement stepping up across the region. As things stand, we continue to think that Chile and Mexico’s economies are best placed to benefit from vaccines, although Peru has moved rapidly up the ladder on this front this week.
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