Reform in Brazil, protests in Chile, election in Argentina

A victory for Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández in this weekend’s presidential election in Argentina looks almost certain and attention is likely to focus on any early signs that he will govern as a centrist or populist. Either way, we think that large debt write-down will ultimately be required. Elsewhere, protests in Chile have continued although we think the economic fallout should be limited. Finally, Brazil’s pension reform approved this week will help to stabilise the debt ratio, but it seems likely that reform momentum will wane from here.