US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s recent asset purchases and repo auctions have reversed more than half of the earlier quantitative tightening. Even so, it is the Fed’s interest rate cuts that have been the far more... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade deal adds to hopes of a more upbeat 2020 The main economic impact of the signing of the Phase One trade deal this week was to further reduce the downside risks to the outlook. But the details of the deal also suggest some upside risk to... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices in December suggests that the trend in underlying inflation is still close to 2%. With wage growth also moderating in recent months, there will be... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The slowdown in payroll growth to a solid 145,000 last month shows that the economy is still creating more than enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. With economic growth bottoming out and... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US-Iran tensions surge as other downside risks fade The renewed surge in US-Iran tensions has pushed geopolitical risk back up the list of things to worry about in 2020. But with the US no longer a net importer of oil products, the economy is likely to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in December, to its lowest level since June 2009, at face value suggests the US economy is teetering on the brink of recession. But it’s hard to put... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued solid gains in payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well. 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Looser financial conditions to drive 2020 recovery GDP growth appears to have slowed slightly, to between 1.5% and 2.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the more stable global backdrop and the lagged impact of this year’s loosening in financial... 19th December 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update 737 Max woes could hit first-quarter GDP Boeing’s decision to halt production of the 737 Max aircraft could deliver a big hit to the manufacturing sector just as prospects were beginning to brighten. If it the shutdown lasts the entire... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output last month reflected both a rebound in autos output following the end of the GM strike and a healthy gain in underlying production. Boeing’s decision to halt... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade “deal” leaves plenty of unknowns The apparent agreement between the US and China to avoid the December increase in tariffs and begin a phased rollback of existing tariffs, together with the more upbeat tone from the Fed, all but... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, to a 16-month low in October, was distorted by a GM-strike related fall in auto imports and a big drop back in consumer goods imports, as the stockpiling... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates on hold for the next few years The Fed’s less dovish language, against a backdrop of fading downside risks, is why we think the Fed is now done cutting interest rates. We anticipate rates will remain at their current level of 1.50%... 4th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) & GDP (Q3, 2nd Estimate) The rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by a surge in orders for underlying capital goods, suggesting that business equipment investment is holding up better than anticipated. Together... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
