US Economics Update Fed pressing ahead with rate hikes The Fed stuck to the script today, pushing ahead with another rate hike and signalling through the accompanying statement and economic projections that it will raise interest rates four times between... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticking to its guns As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates on hold today but, by upgrading its assessment of economic growth to “strong” in the accompanying policy statement, it hinted that it will keep... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ acknowledging the growing downside risks The changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy statement after it left interest rates at 1.75% today are more cosmetic than substantive. But the Bank has acknowledged the growing... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed signals a step-up in the pace of tightening The Fed delivered another 25bp hike in its fed funds target range to between 1.75% and 2.00% today and the updated interest rate projections show that officials now anticipate an additional two 25bp... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Malaysia's shock election Today’s shock victory for former-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s general election could have far-reaching consequences for the economy. In the near term, there is likely to be a sharp... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Recent stimulus worsens fiscal woes The latest CBO projections suggest that the recent fiscal stimulus will push the Federal budget deficit up to 5% of GDP soon. Moreover, there are reasons to expect the actual outcome could be even... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in March, together with the weaker incoming activity data, will add to worries that the economy is slowing. But the index is still at a level... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell era begins on a hawkish note The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected but some investors may have been caught off-guard by the degree to which Fed officials increased their projections for... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update March rate hike coming Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed Chair pretty much summed up her entire tenure; policy was left accommodative but there were hints it will be tightened gradually in the future. The more hawkish... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish The Norges Bank is very unlikely to change its policy rate next week, but we think that it will push back the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates to the end of 2019. After all, the... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tax plan cuts the mortgage interest deduction The tax bill released today halved the size of new mortgages from which interest can be deducted, from $1 million to $500,000. That will hit prices of homes valued at over $500,000, and the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans’ tax plan edges closer to the finish line The House GOP tax bill released earlier today suggests that Republicans are edging towards their goal of passing tax reform this year. The proposals would add $1.5trn to the deficit over ten years, as... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed suggests balance sheet normalisation will begin in September As widely expected, the Fed left its policy settings unchanged today, while hinting that it will begin the process of winding down its balance sheet as soon as September. The Fed will have plenty of... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflation pressures limited apart from in Sweden The latest inflation data for June suggest that underlying price pressures remain subdued in Switzerland and Norway, but continue to build in Sweden. In Switzerland, core inflation, which excludes... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms shun banks for other sources of finance Although the sharp slowdown in C&I bank loans over recent months has received plenty of attention, total corporate sector debt actually expanded by a record amount in the first quarter, suggesting... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Yellen may set out balance sheet plans as early as next week We expect the Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates for the third time in seven months at the FOMC meeting that concludes on 14th June. There is also a good chance that it announces formal... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
