US Economics Weekly Economy already shedding millions of jobs Normally it takes months before economists are sure that the economy has fallen into a recession, but the scale of the declines in the range of daily indicators we’re tracking mean it’s all but... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal support needed, but Fed still has more to do The Fed’s revival of financial crisis-era programs and a huge ramp-up in the pace of its open-ended Treasury purchases in recent days could help to stem some of the bleeding in financial markets. But... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus chaos moving from markets to economy The past couple of weeks have been dominated by the financial market impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with equity markets continuing to plummet, the dollar surging and signs of strain persisting in... 19th March 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Feb.) The February retail sales data provide further evidence that the economy was in reasonable shape before the coronavirus struck, but that won't prevent spending from falling sharply over the next few... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed unleashes full crisis playbook The Fed’s decision to slash interest rates to near-zero won’t stop the economy falling into a recession, but the package of liquidity-boosting measures will help prevent credit markets seizing up... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Deteriorating outlook prompts bigger policy response The shift to more aggressive containment measures this week has prompted us to lower our forecast for GDP growth this year to just 0.6%. In response, we expect at least a 50bp rate cut by the Fed next... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The drop back in CPI inflation to 2.3% in February, from 2.5%, is a sign of things to come, with the plunge in crude oil prices likely to drag headline CPI inflation below 1.0% soon. With underlying... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Plunge in oil price another short-term headwind The plunge in global oil prices should be close to neutral for the US, but we suspect it will still knock a few tenths off annualised GDP growth in the second quarter, as the big hit to mining... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Biden the front runner again Joe Biden’s comeback to win most of the Super Tuesday states means he is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and his campaign could gather further momentum in the coming days if Mike... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) Durable goods orders were held down last month by a plunge in volatile defence orders, but the surge in underlying capital goods orders and shipments suggests business equipment investment growth is... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Markit PMIs (Feb.) The big fall in the Markit composite PMI, to the lowest level since the series began in late-2009, was driven by a plunge in the services index and will inevitably raise fears about the underlying... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Near-term shocks won’t knock economy off course Although the Boeing shutdown and the coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to the economy in the first quarter, there are mounting signs that underlying momentum in the economy is strengthening. We... 19th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Will the new coronavirus affect the US economy? With flights to and from China halted and the handful of domestic cases isolated, the risk of a coronavirus epidemic developing in the US – and the potentially devastating economic disruption that... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth accelerating, but revisions a spoiler Our model suggests that non-farm payroll growth will accelerate to 185,000 in January, from 145,000. The overall tone of the report will not be as positive, however, with the annual benchmark... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory adjustment almost over A sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation weighed heavily on GDP growth in the second half of 2019 but, with that adjustment now largely over, the turning inventory cycle looks set to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
