The big fall in the Markit composite PMI, to the lowest level since the series began in late-2009, was driven by a plunge in the services index and will inevitably raise fears about the underlying health of the economy. While we certainly wouldn’t rule out economic growth slowing further in the first quarter, weighed down by the crisis at Boeing and disruption due to the coronavirus, we have a hard time believing the apparent message from the Markit PMI that the economy is on the brink of a recession.
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