US Chart Pack Economy holding up on eve of rate cut The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, despite some better news on the real economy. Payroll employment growth was much stronger than expected in June... 17th July 2019 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Industrial production was unchanged in June, as a weather-related drop in utilities output offset a 0.4% m/m rise in manufacturing output. But with global demand still weak, we doubt the latter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Leading indicators point to slowdown, not recession Leading economic indicators underline that most of the recent weakness has been confined to the export-orientated industrial sector, suggesting the risks of an outright recession are contained for now... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth accelerated to a decade high in May, as past increases in interest rates boosted portfolio demand, but the more recent renewed slump in rates will trigger a slowdown in the second... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Solid fundamentals will prevent consumer meltdown With the economic slowdown feeding through to weaker job gains, the apparent surge in consumption growth in the second quarter will not be sustained. But the strength of households’ balance sheets and... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) Although the ISM manufacturing index didn’t fall as far as feared in June, the decline in the more forward-looking new orders component suggests the worst is still to come. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Any G-20 trade truce unlikely to last If the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 tomorrow is successful, we would expect both sides to agree to resume negotiations and hold off on imposing new tariffs. But, given the... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks mount We expect GDP growth to slow sharply in the second half of this year, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp. GDP growth will slow from 2.3% this year to 1.2% in 2020, before... 27th June 2019 · 24 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market succumbing to economic slowdown Our model points to a subdued 125,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, suggesting that the labour market is succumbing to the broader slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate should remain... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Rate cuts coming, but not until September We expect a further slowdown in economic growth to eventually prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, particularly with underlying inflation muted. But it is hard to see that happening before the... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) After the largest month-on-month rise for over three years in February, existing home sales were always going to drop back in March. But looking through that volatility we doubt sales will see much of... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed signals extended patience & announces end of QT The Fed’s revised economic projections, which now imply no rate hikes this year, together with the announcement that it will halt its balance sheet run-down in September, came as a positive surprise... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vote on Delaying Brexit The decision by Parliament to ask the EU to delay Brexit beyond 29 th March doesn’t completely rule out a no deal, but it does diminish the downside risk to the economy and increases the chances of a... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to further slowdown The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests the slowdown in business equipment investment and rate-sensitive consumer spending growth will worsen in the coming months. Loan demand has... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update "Patient" Fed will be cutting rates next year The dovish tone of the policy statement and press conference following today’s FOMC decision will reinforce expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. We think a sharp economic... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update December rate hike coming As universally anticipated, the Fed left rates on hold today and there was nothing in the policy statement to suggest that officials are wavering from their plans to hike interest rates again in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
