US Employment Report Preview Strength of payrolls at odds with broader evidence We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a decent 170,000 in November, flattered by the return of striking GM workers. We wouldn’t take too much comfort from that, however, because recent gains look... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Housing rebound a sign of things to come The key housing releases this week provided further evidence that the big decline in mortgage rates is feeding through to a rebound in residential investment. That won’t be enough to prevent the... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy nearing a turning point The latest activity data suggest that economic growth will slow to just 1.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.9% in the third, but there are growing hopes that may prove to be the nadir. Much... 20th November 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed now on prolonged hold We expect economic growth to slow over the coming quarters, but the fading downside risks from the global backdrop and trade policy, together with new, less dovish language from the Fed means we are... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.8% m/m plunge in industrial production last month was almost entirely due to the strike at GM and a weather-related fall in utilities output. With the strike now over, and much of the country... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger 0.4% rise in consumer prices last month was mainly due to higher gasoline prices, with little sign of the September tariffs pushing up prices of consumer goods. If anything, underlying... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q4) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey points to a continued drop off in demand for commercial and industrial loans, consistent with business equipment investment contracting again in the fourth... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s work is not done yet Although the clear message from the Fed this week was that they do not intend to ease policy further, we expect a continued slowdown in economic growth and persistently below target inflation will... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid 128,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was more impressive than it looked given it was depressed by the GM strike and a census-related drop in Federal employment. Together with upward revisions... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly PMIs suggest economy may be stabilising The Fed will probably cut interest rates for third consecutive time at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. That will come shortly after GDP figures for the third quarter are... 25th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview GM strike to hit payrolls hard We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by just 25,000 in October, mainly reflecting disruption caused by the strike at GM. Even excluding that temporary hit, however, the underlying pace of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to cut rates again amid economic slowdown With the markets still fully pricing in another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting and officials doing nothing to push back against those expectations, there is little point trying to deny that... 23rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears ease, but GDP growth still slowing The news of an apparent trade “deal” between the US and China has pushed back the threat of further tariffs and helped to un-invert the yield curve, but economic growth still appears to be slowing... 21st October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet heading back above $4trn The Fed’s move to begin purchasing $60bn of Treasury bills per month will eventually push the size of its balance sheet back up to $4trn over the coming year, not far below its $4.2trn peak. However... 16th October 2019 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The drop back in retail sales in September was driven partly by a price-related drop in gasoline sales, but the fact that underlying control group retail sales were unchanged provides another clear... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade “mini deal” won’t prevent further slowdown Trade talks with China look set to conclude today with a “mini deal”, reducing the immediate risks of a further rise in tariffs. But existing tariffs will remain in place, including the September... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
