Global Economics Focus Globalisation and its effects on the world economy We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in... 10th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Globalisation and its effects on the world economy We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in... 10th October 2019 · 22 mins read
US Economics Update GM strike will deepen the manufacturing downturn The strike at General Motors, together with continued problems at Boeing, means that the incoming manufacturing data over the next month or two will go from bad to terrible. That is another reason to... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trade war and election add to uncertainty We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one... 26th September 2019 · 22 mins read
US Economics Update Services exports are collateral damage in trade war With attention focused on the impact of tariffs on goods trade, the recent decline in services exports has gone largely unnoticed. But that has already knocked a few tenths off GDP growth and, with... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation rebound complicates the Fed’s task The Fed will look through any rise in headline inflation resulting from the recent jump in crude oil prices, but the acceleration in core CPI inflation, to an 11-year high in August, is harder to... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey points to worrying drop-off in investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to a drop in business equipment investment over the rest of the year and provide more evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The small narrowing in the trade deficit in July was driven by a rise in exports and leaves net trade on track to be nothing worse than a small drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. But that drag... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy shrugging off recession fears The further inversion of the yield curve – with the 10-2 year spread briefly inverting last week – has heightened fears that a recession is coming soon, but the real economy shows few signs of any... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (July) With the rest of the world sliding into the abyss, the July retail sales figures show a resurgent US consumer riding to the rescue once again. Even though the surge in retail sales in July was... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulating to the markets With economic growth slowing rather than collapsing and both wage and price inflation rebounding in recent months, further interest rate cuts are hard to justify on purely economic terms. Admittedly... 9th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Lower rates fuelling a recovery in loan demand The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that the sharp fall in market interest rates over the past year is feeding through to a turnaround in loan demand. With global growth still slowing and... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump ramps up pressure on the Fed Despite cutting rates by 25bp this week, the Fed gave no indication that it is lining up another cut soon or that this will mark the start of the extended easing cycle investors are hoping for. But... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update 737 Max woes will continue to weigh on GDP growth The grounding of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft delivered a hit to business equipment investment and net exports in the second quarter, reducing annualised GDP growth by 0.25% points. A similar hit to... 29th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions beginning to sour Our model points to a renewed slowdown in payroll employment growth in July to just 145,000, from 224,000. As the economy slows further, we expect a more marked downturn in employment growth later... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Jun.) The surge in durable goods orders in June suggests that business equipment investment is holding up a bit better than we anticipated. But with the incoming global data still deteriorating and domestic... 25th July 2019 · 2 mins read
