US Economics Update The lasting impact of the virus on the labour market Even though unemployment is likely to continue declining faster than in previous recoveries, we still expect the unemployment rate to remain elevated for years, falling to 8.7% by the end of 2020 and... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The 5.4% rise in industrial production last month was driven by an even stronger 7.2% gain in manufacturing output as producers, particularly in the auto sector, reopened factories to catch up with... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery is losing momentum A growing range of indicators suggest the economic recovery stalled in late-June and early July, in part because of a resurgence in virus infections. There’s clearly a risk that the virus continues... 10th July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Road to recovery will be long and bumpy The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is... 6th July 2020 · 24 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 4.8 million increase in non-farm payrolls in June provides further confirmation that the initial economic rebound has been far faster than we and most others anticipated. But that still leaves... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview The long road back We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by five million in June, as more furloughed employees returned to work. That would be another encouraging sign of the strength of the initial... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Consumers wasting little time as lockdowns ease The 17.7% m/m jump in retail sales in May showed that consumer spending is recovering far quicker than most had expected as lockdowns have eased, with headline retail sales reversing their April drop... 18th June 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in infections won’t stop economy rebounding The rise in new infections in a handful of states across the South and West is nothing like the national surge we saw in late-March and early April that triggered widespread lockdowns. It does... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in hiring adds to signs of faster recovery The 2.5 million rebound in employment last month reverses only a small fraction of the jobs lost since February. But considering we and the consensus had been braced for another large decline, it... 5th June 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The surprise 2.5 million rise in payroll employment last month indicates that the process of rehiring began sooner than the jobless claims figures suggested. With more states moving to loosen their... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview As bad as it gets? We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by 9 million in May, taking the cumulative decline since February close to 30 million and pushing the unemployment rate above 20%. 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The big drop in durable goods orders last month was once again driven mainly by plunging transport orders with underlying capital goods orders falling more modestly. Together with the drop in... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of resilient consumer confidence The relative resilience of consumer confidence in spite of the huge rise in unemployment is testament to the government’s fiscal rescue efforts and suggests the recovery will accelerate as fear of the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Next wave of fiscal measures to be less impressive Congress will probably agree to another round of fiscal support over the coming weeks, but we doubt that will make a huge difference to the economy, given that it appears set to be an order of... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Lockdowns shutter one fifth of the economy The latest hard data suggest economic activity was running 20% below February levels in April, a far sharper downturn than the 2008/09 financial crisis and one compressed into just two months. With... 19th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The 16.4% m/m plunge in retail sales last month leaves sales 21% lower than in February, a slightly bigger hit to consumption from the lockdowns than we had anticipated. Even with many states now... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
