US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The 2.2% drop in industrial production in February was largely a result of the severe storms that battered the country in the second half of the month and should be mostly reversed in March. But there... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Holding the (dovish) line We expect the Fed to leave policy unchanged at its mid-March meeting, though officials will try and use the statement and updated economic projections to push back on market expectations that rate... 10th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the huge drop in the labour force? Around half of the four million decline in the labour force over the past year reflects a wave of early retirements which is likely to be irreversible. The smaller 2.3 million drop in prime-age... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index last month to 60.8, from 58.7, highlights that the recovery in the sector remains red-hot, with the jump in the prices paid component suggesting... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed doubles down on its new policy framework Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress – together with similarly-dovish speeches from key Board members this week – underlined the Fed’s new commitment to the full employment side of its... 26th February 2021 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Strong start sets the tone for the rest of 2021 The economy has started 2021 on a stronger footing than we anticipated. The 5.3% surge in retail sales last month underlined just how quickly stimulus cheques fed through to stronger spending on big... 19th February 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 5.3% m/m surge in retail sales in January how quickly reopenings and the $600 stimulus cheques have fed through to stronger spending. The faster than expected fiscal boost means we now forecast... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued surge in growth of narrow measures of the money supply underline that the economy is awash with liquidity, but that will not trigger a surge in price inflation when growth in the broader... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Dovish Powell; economy emerging from hibernation With fiscal negotiations taking a backseat to the impeachment trial in the Senate, a dovish Powell speech took the limelight this week, together with signs that virus restrictions will continue to be... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Focus $15 minimum wage would add to inflation pressures We suspect that President Joe Biden’s plan to more than double the minimum wage within four years would have only a minimal impact on GDP. While there would almost certainly be some job losses as a... 10th February 2021 · 14 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weaker 0.2% gain in headline durable goods orders in December was mainly due to ongoing problems among aircraft manufacturers and a drop off in defence orders. The bigger story is the continued... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The surge in narrow money growth is entirely due to regulatory changes and a substitution out of savings accounts due to low interest rates. Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth has slowed... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Taper talk premature Aside from acknowledging the weakness in the incoming economic data in the policy statement, we expect the Fed to leave its policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. The additional fiscal... 20th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) In contrast to the renewed slump in consumption, the December industrial production figures show manufacturing output continuing to rise strongly and, with inventories still lean, we expect that... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys point to rising price pressures The plunge in small business optimism in December is mostly noise related to the election, but the clear signal from both the NFIB and JOLT surveys out today is that inflationary pressures appear to... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
