US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The headline ISM manufacturing index was virtually unchanged at a high level in June, but the far bigger story is the further rise in the prices paid index to 92.1 from 88.0, its highest level since... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Labour shortages will last well into 2022 The widespread labour shortages evident in the survey data and job opening & quit rates are only partly due to transitory factors, including enhanced unemployment benefits, childcare constraints, and... 29th June 2021 · 17 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.3% m/m rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by another big increase in commercial aircraft orders reflecting the recovery in air travel, with underlying orders weaker than expected... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
American prices fuel inflation fears Michael Pearce, at Capital Economics, the consultancy, said: “The 1.3 per cent decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the... 16th June 2021 · The Times
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.3% decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the April data and spending on food and drink services posted another solid... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys point to surge in wage and price inflation The surge in job openings and voluntary quits in April add to the survey and anecdotal evidence that labour shortages are becoming increasingly acute. Those shortages look set to persist for some time... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr) The sharp drop in the trade deficit, to $68.9bn in April from $75.0bn a month earlier, largely reflects cooling demand for consumer goods now the boost from fiscal stimulus is fading and demand is... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) While the headline ISM manufacturing index edged up to 61.2 in May, from 60.7, the main takeaway from the release was that shortages of workers, and not just raw materials, now appear to be playing a... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the key monetary aggregates and bank lending has turned up over recent months, driven in part by the Fed’s continued asset purchases. 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remaining dovish as supply-side constraints mount In a relatively quiet week, the few data releases we did get added to signs that shortages are pushing up prices further and restraining the pace of economic recovery. 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply shortages getting worse The strength of demand coupled with supply constraints have made shortages of many goods even worse, with the inventory to sales ratio falling to a record low in March. The surge in job openings and... 18th May 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.9% surge in core prices last month, the biggest monthly gain since April 1982, was concentrated in sectors that are reopening and/or facing intense supply shortages, which should eventually ease... 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Surging Inflation Is Hammering the Stock Market. Why It Isn’t Time to Panic Just Yet. “We doubt this report will change Fed officials’ view that those pressures are ‘largely transitory,” writes Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. “It’s just that there’s a lot... 12th May 2021 · Barron's
Consumer prices around the U.S. rise at fastest rate since 2008 "Almost all the gain was driven by outsized increases in sectors that are seeing demand surge as restrictions ease," Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note... 12th May 2021 · CBS News
