US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 140,000 drop in non-farm payrolls was due to a plunge in leisure and hospitality employment, as bars and restaurants across the country were forced to close in response to the surge in coronavirus... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening of the trade deficit in November came as import growth continued to outpace export growth and means net trade will be a significant drag on fourth quarter GDP growth. Those additional... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Democrats’ Senate wins not a gamechanger With Democrats picking up both Georgia Senate seats in yesterday’s run-off elections, President-elect Joe Biden will have a much easier time confirming his picks for cabinet positions and the chances... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview New restrictions will drive renewed payroll losses We estimate that non-farm payrolls fell by 100,000 in December, the first decline since April. 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods; Income & Spending (Nov.) The solid gains in durable goods orders and shipments last month underline the continued strength of business equipment investment, but the bigger story for the overall economy is that consumption... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 0.8% increase in manufacturing output last month underlines that production is continuing to catch up with the recovery in consumption. Production will continue to rise, even as consumption... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy stalling on eve of vaccine rollout This week brought more evidence that the economic rebound has faded in the closing weeks of the year. The near-term risks are still skewed firmly to the downside, even as the vaccine rollout gets... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 245,000 in November underlines how the renewed surge in virus cases and restrictions is weighing on services demand, which will only intensify... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains at risk of stalling We expect a further slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 400,000 in November, as the recovery in the employment-intensive restaurant and leisure sectors stall. 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Household saving could remain permanently elevated The huge amount of personal savings built up during the pandemic, if unleashed, represents perhaps the biggest upside risk to the economy over the coming year or two. But even once the spread of the... 24th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Growth in narrow measures of the money supply has continued to edge higher as demand and saving deposits continue to accumulate but, with growth in broader measures of money and bank lending dropping... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The acceleration in manufacturing output in October suggests that, after lagging the broader recovery over the past six months, the factory sector is now making up some lost ground. With inventory... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected drop back in core inflation to 1.6% last month, from 1.7%, reflects continued subdued demand in the services sector. With the explosion in virus numbers likely to put further downward... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
