A Covid-19 Vaccine Would Boost the Global Economy, but Not All at Once “Potentially you get a lot of the way back next year with the vaccine. Not only do you have faster growth but that growth is more skewed to the services sector,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S... 11th November 2020 · Wall Street Journal
US Economics Update Economic news will get worse before it gets better The high-frequency data suggest there is a growing risk that the recovery stalls over the next month or two, even as the growing potential for effective vaccines together with a bipartisan fiscal... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election delivers gridlock, but more stimulus possible With Joe Biden taking the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, it seems all but certain he will be the next President, while the Senate is likely to remain under Republican control. That means we... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Economy trumps Covid in Ohio and Florida Michael Pearce, US economist at Capital Economics, said: "It really comes down to a split between people judging Trump on his record before the pandemic and judging it in its entirety. If you were to... 5th November 2020 · The Telegraph
US Economics Update Election result still mired in uncertainty We still don’t know the winner of the presidential election or which party will control the Senate, and, with President Donald Trump threatening to challenge the outcome, the legal wrangling and... 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 59.3 in October, from 55.4, suggests that the rebound in production, which has so far lagged spending, should begin to catch up over the... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to watch for on election night With the race for control of Congress close and unprecedented numbers voting early this year, the results on election night are likely to be unusually volatile. If the polls are accurate and Democrats... 2nd November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed in wait-and-see mode Having rolled out major changes over the past few months and with the incoming economic data still solid, we expect the Fed to stand pat at next week’s meeting and leave its statement virtually... 28th October 2020 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Election and virus cloud the near-term outlook After rebounding by 30% annualised in the third quarter, we expect a more modest 4.5% gain in GDP in the fourth. But recent data suggest the risks to that forecast could lie to the upside, with... 22nd October 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The unexpectedly strong 1.9% rise in retail sales last month suggests the economy was carrying more momentum into the fourth quarter than anticipated, defying fears that the expiry of enhanced... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey suggests inflation has further to rise Despite high unemployment, the latest NFIB survey shows small businesses are struggling to hire qualified workers, while inventory levels are exceedingly lean. In contrast to September’s softer CPI... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Post-election stimulus a key upside risk The rise in longer-term Treasury yields this week appears to reflect growing expectations of a Democrat clean sweep in November that could result in a larger fiscal stimulus down the road. Stock... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic clean sweep becoming more likely The news that President Donald Trump has tested positive for coronavirus has raised the odds of not only Joe Biden winning in November, but of the Democrats sweeping Congress too. 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The weaker than expected 661,000 rise in non-farm payrolls last month was in part due to a drop in government education employment but, with the pace of private payroll gains continuing to slow... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Elections, vaccine, and virus resurgence all key risks Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves... 1st October 2020 · 23 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Shifting down the gears We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 800,000 in September, as the pace of private sector rehiring slows further and the recent burst of Census hiring goes into reverse. 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
