US Economics Update Labour shortages intensifying The NFIB and JOLT surveys published today add to evidence from the April employment report that labour shortages are widespread, pushing up prices and potentially acting as a brake on the recovery. 11th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more muted 266,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is a clear disappointment but, with much of the high-frequency data – including jobless claims – still improving rapidly, we doubt it... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How big a risk is the slowdown in vaccinations? The sharp drop in demand for vaccines in recent weeks is a risk to our assumption that the rollout reaches critical mass over the coming months. That could mean infections and hospitalisations remain... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Loosening credit standards will support activity The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that lending standards are being eased across the board, which will help keep consumption and investment growth solid even as support from fiscal... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index, to 60.7 in April from 64.7, appears to reflect intense and widespread supply constraints rather than a moderation in demand, a view which is underlined by... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to accelerate further The easing of restrictions and the boost from stimulus cheques are why we estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a massive 1,200,000 in April, up from 916,000 the month before. 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus boosting prices as much as output This week brought further signs that the surge in demand is triggering much stronger price pressures. 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply struggling to keep up with red-hot demand The latest round of stimulus cheques and the easing of restrictions are driving a renewed resurgence in demand, with retail sales jumping by nearly 10% in March and the regional manufacturing surveys... 19th April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The near-10% surge in retail sales in March reflects a small fraction of the windfall from the $1,400 stimulus cheques, which were largely saved. At the same time, loosening restrictions are playing a... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to drive strong recovery The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if... 14th April 2021 · 24 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The outsized 0.6% rise in consumer prices in March, driven in part by a 0.3% rise in core CPI, is the clearest indication so far that the signs of mounting inflation evident in business surveys and... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long, winding road to an infrastructure deal The news that a new interpretation of Senate rules would allow Democrats to pass a second reconciliation bill this fiscal year has the potential to be a gamechanger, but we expect moderate Senate... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is it finally infrastructure week? News reports suggest President Joe Biden will unveil plans for a large infrastructure package on Wednesday. We expect the package will take much longer and be harder to pass than the $1.9trn American... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update CPI inflation will rise back above PCE inflation The unusual rise in the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation above CPI inflation in January partly reflects the impact of the differing methodology which, as spending patterns return to pre... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed plays down prospect of rate hikes The updated economic projections released after the Fed’s mid-March meeting show that officials expect strong economic growth this year to have only a transitory impact on inflation, which explains... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation to rise above 2% and stay there Base effects will temporarily drive headline and core CPI inflation up sharply over the coming months but, with underlying price pressures also starting to mount, we expect core CPI inflation to... 17th March 2021 · 8 mins read
