US Chart Pack Pace of recovery begins to slow The pace of economic recovery has slowed in the last month, but that is arguably still an impressive result given the surge in coronavirus cases over the summer, and the more recent expiry of the... 17th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Layoffs back at pre-pandemic levels; fiscal talks stalled The July Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released this week suggests the labour market is in much better health than the downbeat jobless claims figures imply. 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed playing down expectations of further stimulus In the wake of the Fed’s new policy strategy, a range of officials have used speeches in recent days to play down expectations that a major loosening in policy is imminent. While we still expect the... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul) Both exports and imports rebounded sharply in July, but the bigger gain in the latter means that the trade deficit widened to $63.5bn, from $53.5bn. Net external trade is on track to be a drag on... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rebound in production has much further to run The recovery in manufacturing output has been relatively muted up to this point but, with goods consumption surging and, as a result, inventories now looking very lean for this stage in the cycle, we... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The sharp rise in durable goods orders last month was flattered by a surge in transport orders, but core orders are nevertheless almost back to the pre-pandemic level, suggesting that the recovery in... 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation has further to run Although core CPI inflation remains muted at 1.6% in July, the surge in prices last month specifically could be the start of a more significant rebound, as the added costs and ongoing supply... 18th August 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (July) The details of the July retail sales report were rather better than the modest 1.2% headline gain let on and suggest that, while the recovery has lost pace, the slowdown has not been as sharp as we... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus How will the election shape the economic outlook? A Joe Biden victory in November together with Democrats winning back control of the Senate could see a big increase in taxation and federal spending, together with a shakeup of healthcare, regulatory... 13th August 2020 · 27 mins read
US Economics International Trade (Jun.) The latest trade figures confirm that both exports and imports finally began to rebound in June, and we could see continued rapid gains over the coming months as trade catches up with the strong... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption to keep rising regardless of fiscal delay Even though Congress failed to prevent the $600 additional UI payments from expiring last Friday, we still expect a deal in the coming weeks which will offset the continued hit to incomes from the... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
The U.S. Election Is Getting Ugly-And Investors Are Getting Nervous An election without a clear winner the following day would likely weigh on the benchmark S&P 500, which is up nearly 45% since its March lows and hovering near record highs. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% the... 31st July 2020 · New York Times
US Economics Update Fed still likely to provide more accommodation While the Fed left its policy settings unchanged and opted not to strengthen its forward guidance at the conclusion of its meeting today, its downbeat assessment of the economic outlook still suggests... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Another solid rise in durable goods orders in June left core orders just 3.7% below February levels, underlining how the hit to business investment during the pandemic has been relatively mild... 27th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Recovery entering more gradual phase The rapid recovery in activity in May and June means that, after contracting by close to 30% annualised in the second quarter, GDP is already on course for a big rebound in the third quarter. But... 23rd July 2020 · 9 mins read
