US Economics Update Activity recovering only gradually as lockdowns ease The early evidence suggests that, even in states which have begun to ease lockdown measures, demand is initially recovering only gradually. It also points to the recovery completely bypassing some... 14th May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.8% m/m fall in consumer prices last month reflects the sharp drop in energy prices together with an unprecedented 0.4% m/m fall in core CPI. But the latter was largely due to very big declines... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market catastrophe The confirmation that non-farm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, with job losses in every sector underlines just how deep and widespread the economic shock over the past six weeks has... 8th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys provide a poor guide for the months ahead The surprising resilience of the Markit PMIs and ISM indices this month is more a function of the survey design than an indication that the economic hit is not as bad as the hard data suggest. The... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 41.5 in April, from 49.1, was more modest than we and the consensus expected and leaves it at a level consistent with GDP falling at a 5% annualised pace... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal rescue to push debt burden close to WWII levels With Congress ramping up its fiscal stimulus rescue package, federal debt will rise above 100% of GDP this year, not far off the record high of 108% of GDP in the aftermath of WWII. That is not a... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Temporary immigration ban highlights longer-term risk President Trump’s tweet announcing a temporary ban on immigration is most likely just a short-term tactic to fire up his base. But it is hard not to see this as the beginning of an even more nativist... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus deals unprecedented blow to activity The early hard data for March confirmed an unprecedented hit to economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic, with retail sales seeing the sharpest monthly fall in the survey’s 30-year history and... 16th April 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 8.7% fall in retail sales last month suggests that first-quarter real consumption declined by up to 5% annualised. As the lockdowns were only introduced in the middle of last month, however, a... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Paycheck protection program will reduce scarring The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of forgivable small business loans has come too late to prevent the huge initial wave of layoffs, but will be more useful in helping less directly affected firms... 14th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The curve is flattening, but economy is in freefall This week brought early signs that the restrictions put in place over recent weeks are flattening the epidemic curve in the US. But set against that good news, there are clearer signs that the hit to... 9th April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Virus disruption will only be partly reversed in H2 As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment... 6th April 2020 · 22 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The marginal fall in the headline ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in March, from 50.1, indicates that the initial hit to the factory sector from the coronavirus was more muted than feared. With many... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Even with stimulus, virus will deal economy lasting hit The agreement on a $2trn fiscal stimulus, the Fed’s actions and tentative signs that quarantine measures in Europe are beginning to curb the virus spread have all helped steady the mood in markets... 27th March 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The rise in durable goods orders in February reflected a surge in transport orders, with underlying capital goods orders and shipments falling back. That suggests business equipment investment was on... 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed turns the easing up to 11 This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the Fed’s policy statement on 23rd March. The Fed’s expansion of its open-ended QE, together with new measures to lend... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
