India Economics Weekly Investment recovering, but headwinds remain The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment growth recovered further in Q4. The rebound should continue over the coming months, but is likely to slow in the second half of the year as... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The drop in headline wholesale price inflation in December was driven by a sharp fall in food inflation, while core inflation rose. Nevertheless, taken alongside the sharp drop in CPI inflation last... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The drop in India’s consumer price inflation in December strengthens our view that monetary policy will remain very loose for a long time to come, and could even be enough to trigger a policy rate cut... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the... 11th January 2021 · 18 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes and concerns The approval of COVID-19 vaccines in India this week were quicker than most had expected, but concerns over the approval process and pricing disagreements underscore some of the challenges that remain... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Dec.) India’s PMI readings were a mixed bag in December but are still consistent with a continued economic recovery across Q4 as a whole. Further improvements should follow, especially given promising COVID... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading for December points to a continued rebound in the sector at the end of last year. And the recovery could gain further momentum if COVID-19 vaccines are successfully... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly A looser inflation target would not help The government is due to issue the RBI with a new inflation target next year, and there are suggestions that it is considering relaxing the existing framework perhaps by widening the “tolerance band”... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit set to widen further India’s goods trade deficit widened again in November and is set to reach its pre-pandemic levels over the coming months, especially given recent positive developments on a COVID-19 vaccine. But we... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The drop in India’s consumer price inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a broader easing of price pressures. That would allow the RBI to keep monetary policy loose for some time to... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in November was driven by a further acceleration in core inflation but this could go into reverse soon, especially if a COVID-19 vaccine is successfully... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) Industrial production rose by more than most had anticipated in October and is now growing as fast in y/y terms as it was before the pandemic hit. A near-term slowdown is a possibility but the outlook... 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a... 10th December 2020 · 11 mins read
India Data Response India Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in November comes as no surprise given that it hit a decade high in October. The big picture is that the reading is still consistent with a decent recovery in... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
