India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation concerns will prove misplaced A further jump in government bond yields in India this week points to growing expectations of monetary tightening, perhaps fuelled by concerns over rising inflation. But while CPI data next week are... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update A closer look at India’s vaccine supply projections The government’s latest vaccine supply projections suggest that India could fully vaccinate all adults by year end. But that hinges on optimistic assumptions about production and distribution. Unless... 7th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in June suggests that the recent plunge in new virus cases has yet to translate into a pick-up in manufacturing activity. The recovery should get back on track as... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) India’s core infrastructure industries index dropped sharply in m/m terms in May, suggesting that the second virus wave has taken a large toll on industry even though it has been subject to fewer... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Can the pick-up in vaccinations be sustained? India’s vaccine rollout appears to have shifted into a higher gear, with daily vaccinations more than doubling over the past couple of weeks. If this upturn is sustained, it would significantly reduce... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a six-month high in May on the back of an unexpected surge in core inflation, which we suspect is a result of rising commodity prices now seeping into retail... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation surged to a three-decade high in May on the back of the sharp rise in global commodity prices and will be a concern for policymakers. However, there are reasons to think that... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Resilient remittances will aid the recovery Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lockdown extensions, industrial weakness Several states have extended lockdowns this week even as new virus cases continue to plunge. With local governments taking a cautious approach to reopening, the economic recovery is likely to be more... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
