India Economics Update Implications of a weak monsoon This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The sharp rises in India’s services and composite PMI readings in August support our view that the economy has staged a strong rebound in Q3. But downside risks remain significant as the threat of... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in August is probably just a sign of activity normalising following the strong pace of recovery in recent months. But the threat of further virus waves remains a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kerala concerns, Sensex surge Headline numbers suggest that the recent virus outbreak in Kerala has been brought under control, but that seems to be in large part a reflection of a sharp fall in testing. And with vaccination... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The drop in India’s headline wholesale price inflation in July came on the back of an easing in fuel and food inflation, both of which have further to run. And with headline CPI inflation having... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit no major concern The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in July was due in large part to the continued rebound in imports as containment measures were scaled back further. The trade deficit may widen a little... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped below the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range in July, and we think further falls are likely. With the economy also still weak, there should be little... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI in no rush to tighten policy The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Relapse risks rising Economic activity has been recovering quickly since the second virus wave abated. But we've argued for some time that the rapid reopening increases the risk of new outbreaks. That threat is building... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The rebound in India’s PMI surveys in July provides further evidence that the economy was quick to get back on its feet after the second virus wave. But the rapid reopening, combined with low... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The sharp rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to evidence that the economy has been staging a strong recovery ever since the second virus wave receded. But with vaccine coverage still... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms in June, suggesting that an industrial recovery is well underway. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit won’t threaten external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in June came on the back of a rebound in imports amid the lifting of containment measures and the recent rally in global oil prices. But while the economic... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
