India Economics Weekly Investment recovery enters a slower phase Monthly data suggest that the recovery in investment has slowed, and headwinds are mounting too. The surge in virus cases means lots of firms will tread with caution in the near term, while problems... 16th April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in gold imports no threat to external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in March came on the back of a surge in monthly gold imports to its highest on record. But this was driven in part by one-off factors. Looking ahead, we... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Mar. 2021) The faster-than-anticipated acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in March was driven by a surge in fuel inflation, but we think it should fall back soon enough. And with the recent jump... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a four-month high in March as food inflation accelerated. But we doubt that the headline rate will continue rising for much longer and, with the economic... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Surge in infections a risk to the recovery The economic recovery has progressed well over recent months and as things currently stand growth is on course to be stronger than the consensus expects this year. But the recent surge in virus cases... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI for March indicates a continued rebound in the sector last month, but that has already been overtaken by more recent events. In particular, the renewed surge in new COVID-19... 5th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update FDI outlook remains upbeat Parliament’s approval this week of a loosening of restrictions on FDI in the insurance sector will not have a significant macro impact, but it provides reassurance that FDI reform remains a priority... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What next for inflation? A rise in headline consumer price inflation over the coming months will do little to temper growing market expectations of imminent rate hikes. But it will largely be driven by fuel price inflation... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Renewed virus outbreak a key downside risk The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a three-month high this week does not appear to be a major threat to India's economy yet as cases are still comparatively low and the outbreak has predominantly... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Waning portfolio flows not a major macro concern Foreign investor appetite for Indian assets has faded in recent weeks. Inflows into the equity market have waned, while foreigners have turned into net sellers of Indian debt. This chimes with... 18th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Taper tantrum fears return EM financial markets have been hit this month by the rise in US Treasury yields, which has re-ignited some concerns about a re-run of the Taper Tantrum. So far, capital outflows from EMs have been... 16th March 2021 · 11 mins read
India Economics Update External risks look manageable The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in February is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation rebounded in February, but we doubt that this will lead to a rate hike at the upcoming MPC meeting in April. The renewed contraction in industrial output in January clearly... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
