India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The rise in the September PMIs is a welcome sign that the economic recovery still has legs. But with new virus cases in India still high, the road to normality will almost certainly remain long and... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Encouraging signs of improvement from trade data The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in September came on the back of a decent pick-up in external demand, while domestic demand showed encouraging signs of improvement too. But sustaining the... 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The jump in September’s manufacturing PMI reading to its highest in over eight years is a much-needed sign that the recovery still has some legs. But with India now a virus epicentre, containment... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vehicle sales strength, rupee weakness The jump in passenger vehicle sales in August contrasts with other indicators showing that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stuttering. We suspect this is mostly a reflection of consumers making... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data point to sluggish demand recovery The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in August won’t put the external position at risk, but the underlying data suggest that the recovery in external and domestic demand is stuttering. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation rose by more than most had expected in August, due mainly to a jump in the core component. A similarly sharp rise in core consumer price inflation last month – data will be... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Becoming the virus epicentre India this week overtook Brazil to become the second-worst affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is only a matter of time before its total virus cases surpasses those in the US. This grim... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update How are the states faring? While some of the early epicentres of the coronavirus outbreak in India now appear to be getting infections under control, cases are rising quickly in several states that avoided an initial surge... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First waves still the big concern A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer... 25th August 2020 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External and domestic demand struggling to recover India’s monthly goods trade balance swung back into deficit in July, but the fact that it remains small means that there is little concern regarding external stability. Nevertheless, the underlying... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
