India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) The extraordinary plunge in the services PMI highlights that services is faring far worse than the manufacturing sector in the current crisis. Looking ahead, the services sector is likely to suffer... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The astounding plunge in India’s manufacturing PMI to a record low in April strongly indicates that the nationwide lockdown has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead, with the shutdown now... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) India’s core infrastructure industries index contracted sharply in March, suggesting that overall industrial output will have fallen by a similar magnitude. The lockdown only began towards the end of... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data highlight collapse in demand The collapse in both exports and imports in March highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. What’s more, the worst is yet to come as lockdowns to contain the spread of the... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Although not the preferred measure for policymakers, the drop in the headline WPI rate in March reinforces our view that inflation is no concern at this stage. Instead, the priority now is for the... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Headline CPI inflation dropped to a four-month low in March and timely indicators suggest a further easing in price pressures so far in April. With inflation no concern, the priority for policymakers... 13th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The nationwide lockdown is due to end on Tuesday but with recorded cases of the coronavirus still rising rapidly, only a partial scaling back of restrictions is likely. With large parts of the economy... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Collapse in demand and oil prices to anchor inflation Given the concerns about public health and the impact of the national lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though, the likelihood... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Mar.) The drop in the PMI readings for March suggests that the economy had already lost momentum even before the nationwide lockdown was imposed towards the end of the month. More timely indicators suggest... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped to a four-month low in March and the reading has yet to capture the impact of the nationwide lockdown which began at the end of the month. April’s reading, and... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Stepping up the coronavirus response The RBI has so far taken only piecemeal steps in its response the coronavirus outbreak. But with the virus now spreading rapidly in India and with containment measures set to take an enormous economic... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
