India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in November but, with policy stimulus already in the pipeline, we think that the prospects for local manufacturers will improve... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth to be stronger in 2020 EM GDP growth picked up in Q3 and, despite a likely slowdown in China, we expect that aggregate EM growth will be a touch stronger in 2020 than it has been this year. 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) India’s economy slowed further in Q3 and, with a strong rebound in the near term looking unlikely, there is a rising chance that the rate cut that is almost certain next week will be followed by... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Rates to drop to lowest in almost a decade We agree with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be cut by another 25bp at the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) policy meeting on Thursday 5th December. This... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The downturn in India’s industrial production deepened in September with the result that, on this measure, industry contracted slightly across Q3 as a whole. More policy easing is likely in order to... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen above the RBI’s 4.0% target for the first time in 15 months in October due to another jump in food inflation. This won’t dissuade the central... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly More tax cuts, Sensex hits a record high Just a few weeks after corporate taxes were lowered, media reports this week suggested that further tax cuts are under consideration. While this would almost certainly push the central government’s... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in October to a two-year low is a worrying sign that business conditions have further deteriorated. But with fiscal policy being loosened and further monetary... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM core inflation weakest on record The continued decline in core inflation across many emerging markets supports our view that most central banks’ easing cycles have further to run. Our measure of EM core inflation fell to 2.8% y/y... 18th October 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit will stay in check India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in headline consumer price inflation in September won’t prevent another policy rate cut from the Reserve Bank, particularly since it was largely due to damage to farmers’ harvests rather than... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The weakness in wholesale price inflation in September is likely to persist until the end of the year and, although not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, supports our view... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The contraction in India’s industrial production in August is alarming but it should prove temporary as the effect of recent policy easing kicks in. 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
