India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation held steady in July and remains comfortably below the central bank’s (RBI) 4.0% target, laying the foundations for at least one more interest rate cut later this year. But with... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal deficit target doubtful, banking code amended India’s fiscal deficit in Q1 of FY19/20 provides little assurance about the government’s ability to meet the 3.3% target that it set in the union budget last month. We think that the finance ministry... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading for July is consistent with decent output in the sector at the start of Q3. But this won’t be a barrier to further monetary easing, and we’ve pencilled in another... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Gold price rally won’t hurt external position Gold prices have hit a record high in rupee terms in recent weeks, surpassing the previous peak in 2012 when India was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. But a drop in underlying demand for... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Equities have further to fall Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in... 23rd July 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time in five months in June. Looking ahead, a limited exposure to a more protectionist US, as well as low oil prices, will help to keep the... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the continued decline in the headline rate in June will help the MPC to justify another rate cut at... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Policy loosening risks stoking inflation Policy support has been stepped up in recent months and, with further easing set to follow, growth should gradually recover from the slowdown in Q1. In fact, the risk now is that policy loosening goes... 9th July 2019 · 20 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) The likely rise in headline inflation in June won’t prevent the MPC – now firmly under the control of doves following the surprise resignation of deputy governor Viral Acharya last month – from... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) The solid rise in retail sales values in May suggests that consumption growth will be quite strong in the second quarter and we think that it will continue to expand at a rapid rate in the third... 27th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The slowdown in May’s inflation was largely broad-based, and we expect it to turn negative by the end of the year. However, the Bank of Japan won’t be overly concerned as this will be mostly driven by... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but, even so, the drop in the headline rate in May will be used by the MPC as further justification of its... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
