India Economics Update Risks from wider trade deficit are limited The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in December is likely to reverse over the coming months. But we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated to a seven-month high in December nevertheless supports our view that the rate-cutting... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in headline CPI inflation to its highest since 2014 almost guarantees that the RBI will leave policy rates on hold at its next meeting in early February. And with core inflation likely to... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected turnaround in industrial production growth in November is a breath of fresh air for India’s economy and supports our view that the economic slowdown has probably bottomed out... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India. Further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could therefore be economically... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in December suggests that the manufacturing sector has recovered from its weakness last year and supports our view that the recent economic slowdown has run its... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus Turning the corner in 2020 After a dreadful 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more decisive measures to deal with problems in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation rose for the first time in eight months in November. While not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, this adds to the impression that the... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Little threat from wider trade deficit India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in November and we expect this to continue into 2020. Nevertheless, with imports of key commodities set to remain low, we think that the external shortfall... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The further surge in headline inflation in November casts doubt on the possibility of further monetary easing. If the headline rate remains high above the central bank’s 4.0% target this month as well... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI leaves rates unchanged, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged for the first time this year, following five successive rate cuts. Nevertheless, the MPC has left the door open for further easing in the... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
