India Economic Outlook Stimulus to drive rebound in growth India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain... 8th October 2019 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have jumped in September on the back of a surge in onion prices. But that’ll hardly bring tears to the eyes of the RBI, as it is likely to have stayed... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reading held steady in September, but this barely captured the impact of the recent large-scale corporate tax cut. Looser fiscal policy and the likelihood of further monetary... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the continued weakness in the headline rate in August increases the likelihood of another rate... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit set to remain contained The goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in August and, even if export growth stays weak, we think that the shortfall will remain small over the coming quarters. 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in August and remained comfortably below the RBI’s target of 4.0%. This is the last set of CPI data that will be released before the MPC next meets in... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in August, due in large part to a renewed pick up in food inflation. But it will remain comfortably below the RBI’s 4.0% target. And given the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Despite dropping in August, the recent manufacturing PMI readings paint a healthier picture of the sector than the Q2 GDP data released last week. That said, they won’t provide a hurdle to additional... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Another unexpectedly weak quarter of growth in India strengthens the case for further easing of fiscal and monetary policy. We expect both over the rest of this year. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Further weakness ahead for the rupee The rupee has fallen by around 4% so far this month, underperforming all other major currencies in Asia. Growing risk aversion amongst investors in recent weeks has resulted in broad losses in EM... 21st August 2019 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will remain small The merchandise trade deficit narrowed in July and we think that it will remain small over the coming months given India’s limited exposure to trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the weakness in the headline rate in July increases the likelihood of another rate cut at the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
