India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased a little in May, suggesting that the slump in industry has bottomed out. But activity is still very weak and, given the damage... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Remittance slump would add to economic woes Worsening employment prospects for Indian migrants in the Gulf and the US mean that remittance inflows are likely to drop even as lockdowns are eased. While this won’t have severe ramifications for... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation data for May show a broad-based easing in price pressures. This reinforces our view that inflation shouldn’t be a barrier to further policy loosening, and we expect the RBI... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Conditions slowly improve, interest waiver dispute The gradual loosening of strict containment measures has provided a slight boost to activity, but with new COVID-19 cases still rising sharply, the recovery is likely to be slower and bumpier than in... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should not constrain policymakers Daily price data give a strong indication that food inflation dropped in May, most likely as supply disruptions eased a touch and agricultural activity was allowed to resume. With global oil prices... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) Interpreting the PMI surveys in the current environment is tricky, but the small rise in May’s services PMI suggests to us that activity has edged up very slightly. Nevertheless, fears over infection... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The nature of the PMI surveys makes them tricky to interpret in the current environment, but we think May’s manufacturing reading indicates that activity in the sector edged up slightly last month... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Cash to remain king for a long while yet Amid the severe economic damage that the coronavirus and containment measures have caused, one potential positive is the greater prevalence of cashless payments as people make more purchases from home... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data indicate extreme weakness in demand The 60% y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in April highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. This will probably mark the bottom as restrictions on activity are... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The partial release of the WPI inflation figures for April strongly suggest that the headline rate has dropped. This supports our view that the inflation outlook shouldn’t be a concern for... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) As a result of the Statistics Office being only partly operational due to India’s nationwide lockdown, the headline CPI data for April weren’t published as originally scheduled today. But the... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery a long way off Industrial output slumped in March and more timely evidence from the manufacturing PMI, electricity consumption and vehicle production strongly suggest that the sector has come to a near standstill in... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should be of no concern to policymakers Given growing worries about public health and the devastating economic impact of India’s lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
