RBI Watch Policy will remain loose for a long time to come We agree with financial markets and the consensus that India’s policy rates will be left unchanged at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday. Further ahead however, we think that markets are... 30th November 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Monetary policy to remain loose despite vaccines This month’s positive vaccine news has dramatically improved the near term global economic outlook, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter our dovish view on EM monetary policy. Many EMs have only small... 20th November 2020 · 11 mins read
India Economics Update Investment recovery likely to lose steam The rebound in investment in India appears to have been stronger than anticipated over the past few months and we are revising up our estimates of Q3 GDP growth as a result. But the recovery faces... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in October was largely the result of a jump in core inflation, which adds to the evidence from the latest CPI data that underlying price pressures are... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation jumped in October further above the RBI’s 4% target, which removes the remote possibility of a rate cut at next month’s MPC meeting. But there are still reasons to... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production rose above its level a year ago for the first time in seven months in September, suggesting that the recovery in Q3 will have been better than we had been expecting. Adding to... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The rise in the October PMIs suggests that the economy has been rebounding a little faster than we had thought. However, there are still plenty of headwinds to the recovery. 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI to its highest reading in over a decade in October suggests that the recovery has been stronger than we had anticipated. But given the damage to corporate balance... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) The slump in the core infrastructure industries index eased in September, and this suggests that overall industrial output contracted by 8% in Q3. That’s a slight upside risk to our GDP forecasts. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Second wave to hit recovery & keep rate cuts on table Recoveries in much of the emerging world were slowing even before the renewed surge in COVID-19 cases across many parts of the globe. The economies of Central & Eastern Europe will be hit hard in Q4... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in September was sharper than expected but, with price pressures likely to ease in earnest over the coming months, we think further policy rate cuts are... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The slump in industrial production eased in August but output is still well below its pre-virus levels. And the fiscal stimulus package announced today will do little to boost demand. The recovery in... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
