India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Feb.) India’s PMI readings for February suggest that output has rebounded further above pre-virus levels so far this quarter. With fiscal policy turning more supportive and new virus cases remaining low... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading was virtually unchanged in February and remains consistent with a strong recovery in the sector so far this quarter. That should continue over the coming months... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Reasons for cautious optimism While the mood in EM financial markets has soured a little of late, from an economic standpoint, the past month has brought several positive developments. First, Q4 GDP data released so far have... 23rd February 2021 · 11 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovery, oil price impact The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment staged a stronger recovery than we had anticipated at the end of 2020 and, as such, we are nudging up our estimate of Q4 GDP. Meanwhile, the... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in January is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Taking stock of the vaccine rollout Almost a month since the start of India’s vaccination drive, it appears highly unlikely that the government will meet its target of inoculating 300m people by August. For now, we maintain our... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Jan.) India’s PMI readings for January suggest that the economy is still rebounding and, with fiscal policy finally being loosened significantly, a decent recovery over the coming quarters looks a stronger... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Manufacturing PMI (Jan. 2021) India's manufacturing PMI reading edged up in January but, given signs elsewhere that the industrial recovery has lost a bit of steam, policymakers should still be aiming to provide support to the... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Dec.) India’s core infrastructure industries index didn’t improve much in December, which suggests that the industrial rebound lost some steam in Q4 and underscores the need for policymakers to provide... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry’s balancing act, RBI’s opportunity For India watchers, next week will be one of the most important of the year. We think the Finance Ministry will attempt to demonstrate prudence in the Union Budget on Monday, though obfuscation of the... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Don’t rule out a rate cut Financial markets and analysts appear convinced that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 5 th February, but we aren’t so sure. We think the recent sharp... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More weakness still to come for many EMs The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is getting underway across EMs, but in many cases progress has been slow-going. In the meantime, many countries are suffering from worsening outbreaks. New cases are... 22nd January 2021 · 11 mins read
India Economics Weekly FX reserve accumulation will limit rupee gains The RBI has accumulated foreign exchange reserves at a rapid pace over recent months, and comments this week from Governor Shaktikanta Das indicate that the central bank intends to build up its... 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to widen further The widening in India’s goods trade deficit to an 18-month high in December still has further to run, particularly as a recovery in both domestic demand and global oil prices pushes import values... 18th January 2021 · 2 mins read
