India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) India’s PMI readings for May adds to evidence elsewhere that the damage from the second virus wave has not been as severe as when the pandemic first struck last year. But with restrictions likely to... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI to a ten-month low in May suggests that activity has taken a hit from the second virus wave despite the sector being largely exempt from containment measures. And... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity bottoming out The continued drop in new virus cases has coincided with a bottoming out in some of the real-time activity data, and the evidence from last year suggests that activity could bounce back rapidly when... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Labour market taking a hit, Cyclone Tauktae High-frequency data show that job losses are starting to mount, but a key lesson from last year is that the labour market can recover quickly once virus restrictions are lifted. That provides hope... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Over the worst? New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The surge in Indian wholesale price inflation in April was driven in large part by the rally in commodity prices, which we think will reverse over the coming months. That should allow the RBI to keep... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Slowdown in vaccine rollout casts a dark cloud New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but there have at least been some encouraging signs this week that the current wave is close to peaking. However, lacklustre progress with the... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reasons for hope and despair New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Resilient Services Sector Points to Global Economic Pickup, Despite Covid-19 Flare-Ups “There is every possibility of a further tightening in state-level restrictions beyond this month,” said Darren Aw, an economist at Capital Economics. “That would weigh heavily on services activity in... 5th May 2021 · Wall Street Journal
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) India’s PMI readings for April suggest that economic activity has held up fairly well despite the latest set of containment measures. But with virus cases still extremely high, tighter and wider... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in March, but this is old news given the dramatic surge in virus cases and renewed tightening of containment measures since then. 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly How damaging will be the new restrictions be? With the economic damage from last year’s lockdown still fresh in the memory, there appears to be little appetite for a return to extreme measures to curb the ongoing outbreak. But given the very... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Virus outbreaks cloud the outlook New COVID-19 cases have surged in the emerging world, with India, Emerging Europe and Latin America particularly hard hit. Social distancing measures have been tightened in many countries, which will... 21st April 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
