Over the worst?

New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of tests returning positive has fallen too. Encouragingly, the drop in cases has become more pronounced across major states, including Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. That all said, it’s too early to sound the all-clear. Even with the fall in cases, there are widespread reports of healthcare remaining under immense pressure, suggesting that restrictions will remain in place for a considerable time yet. Further ahead, the slowdown in the vaccine rollout means that the threat of further outbreaks will remain a dark cloud over the economic outlook.