India Economics Weekly Shadow banking strains are easing Severe strains in the shadow banking sector that were amplified during the initial stages of the coronavirus crisis are showing signs of easing. This should help ensure that the economic slump isn’t... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) While the rise in headline wholesale price inflation was expected, underlying price pressures appear stickier than we had initially thought. We think these will still ease over the coming months, but... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The July PMI surveys have been a mixed bag but, taken together with evidence elsewhere, they suggest that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stalling. This adds to the case for further monetary... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The small drop in July’s manufacturing PMI adds to signs elsewhere that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling. Looking ahead, the road back to normality for the manufacturing sector will be slow and... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased slightly in June, but the weakness of industry will still have weighed heavily on GDP in Q2. What’s more, there are already signs... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Tepid recovery to prompt further easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been emphatic in its response to the coronavirus crisis but, given the severity of the economic downturn and signs that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling... 28th July 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector risks, bumper food harvest Concerns about an impending surge in non-performing loans have resurfaced over the past week. We flagged this risk a few months ago but, given the increasing likelihood of limited fiscal support, the... 17th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Rare trade surplus gives little reason to cheer India’s monthly trade balance swung into its largest monthly surplus on record in June. But this is not something to celebrate since it is the result of continued weakness in domestic demand. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for policymakers, but the broad-based rebound in the headline rate challenges our view that price pressures will ease this year... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in India appears to be easing after an initial surge when the lockdown first came into effect. We expect headline inflation to continue falling towards the RBI’s 4% target, which should... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery will be slow and protracted The slump in industrial production eased in May, confirming that the recovery in industry is now underway. But given the likelihood of a renewed tightening in containment measures and the substantial... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a pressing concern Daily price data suggest that food inflation has eased over recent weeks and, with demand also likely to remain depressed, inflation does not appear to be a pressing concern. The focus of policymakers... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The rebound in June’s services and composite PMIs suggests the economy is now on the long road to normality. But the recovery will be slow and fitful. 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Despite remaining below 50, the rise in June’s manufacturing PMI reading suggests to us that activity has picked up further as containment measures have been scaled back. However, the lasting damage... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
