Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries

The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a realistic goal, which should allow lockdowns to be (largely) lifted. That’s one reason why we now expect a stronger recovery in EM GDP next year (our 2021 EM GDP growth forecast is now 8%, up from 7.4% previously). (See Chart 1.) Performances will vary widely across countries. A few East Asian economies are already back at their pre-crisis trend, and Chile and parts of Eastern Europe may converge pretty soon. But other parts of Latin America, South Asia and Africa may take much longer to return to their pre-crisis trend.