US Economics Weekly Fed shift unlikely to transform the near-term outlook The confirmation this week that the Fed is adopting “a flexible form of average inflation targeting” indicates that further monetary stimulus is coming soon. But with long-term interest rates already... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Census hiring to provide a boost We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest one million in August and without the restarting of field operations for the 2020 Census, which probably added 250,000 jobs, employment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation has further to run Although core CPI inflation remains muted at 1.6% in July, the surge in prices last month specifically could be the start of a more significant rebound, as the added costs and ongoing supply... 18th August 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Focus How will the election shape the economic outlook? A Joe Biden victory in November together with Democrats winning back control of the Senate could see a big increase in taxation and federal spending, together with a shakeup of healthcare, regulatory... 13th August 2020 · 27 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 1,763,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July confirms that, despite the resurgence in new coronavirus cases, the recovery remains firmly intact. With new infections now trending lower again and... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.2 in July, from 52.6, suggests that output continued to rebound last month. Given that the recovery in production has lagged behind the recovery... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lining up more support as fiscal talks drag on The second-quarter GDP data released this week, which showed output plunging by a record 32.9% annualised, highlighted the unprecedented hit to the economy from the pandemic. We know that activity... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market recovery slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment rose by “only” 1.0 million in July, as the renewed spread of the virus started to weigh on the economy. With employment currently still 15 million below... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 32.9% annualised decline in GDP in the second quarter, more than three times larger than the previous record quarterly contraction, underscores the unprecedented hit to the economy from the... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Recovery entering more gradual phase The rapid recovery in activity in May and June means that, after contracting by close to 30% annualised in the second quarter, GDP is already on course for a big rebound in the third quarter. But... 23rd July 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rebound in consumer prices last month confirms that the disinflationary impact of the lockdowns in March and April is now going into reverse, but inflation is likely to remain muted over the... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Pull-back in activity only partly due to new restrictions The high-frequency data suggest renewed fears about the coronavirus are starting to weigh on consumption even in states that haven’t moved to reimpose restrictions, reinforcing our view that the pace... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Road to recovery will be long and bumpy The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is... 6th July 2020 · 24 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to 52.6 in June, from 43.1, adds to the evidence that factory sector activity has recovered fairly quickly as the initial wave of lockdown measures has been... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed may have to ramp up Treasury purchases again The Fed’s balance sheet has started to shrink again, as the emergency liquidity measures deployed at the height of the crisis have started to wind down, the pace of Treasury purchases has slowed... 23rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Consumers wasting little time as lockdowns ease The 17.7% m/m jump in retail sales in May showed that consumer spending is recovering far quicker than most had expected as lockdowns have eased, with headline retail sales reversing their April drop... 18th June 2020 · 9 mins read
