US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 60.7 in December, from 57.5, is at odds with the wider evidence that the economic recovery is slowing and suggests the... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal boost not as large as headline figures suggest The $900bn fiscal relief deal agreed by Congress won’t represent as big a fiscal expansion as the headline figures suggest as it appears to mostly involve recycling the unused funding from previous... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update State & local budget hit not as bad as feared The relative resilience of state & local government tax revenues during the pandemic means that the overall budget shortfalls facing those governments are likely to be smaller than many had feared... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Tinkering at the margins We expect the Fed to keep its main policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. But officials are set to unveil new guidance on their asset purchases, most likely pledging to maintain them... 9th December 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to a still-solid 57.5 in November, from 59.3, suggests that manufacturing production will continue to catch up with the broader economic recovery despite the... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update 13(3) decision could be net positive for the economy The Treasury’s decision not to extend the majority of the Fed’s emergency lending facilities beyond the end of the year is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy given that those facilities... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Unemployment benefit expiry not a major threat The expiry of the remaining enhanced unemployment insurance programs at the end of the year would hit the incomes of the unemployed but would be unlikely to deal a major blow to the economy. With... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The weaker than expected 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October is still broadly consistent with our forecast that consumption growth will slow to 7.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. But the... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The 638,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in October is stronger than it looks as it included a 147,000 drop in temporary Census employment and, alongside the big fall in the unemployment rate, it... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & ADP Employment (Oct.) Although the markets remain firmly focused on the fallout from the election, the 365,000 rise in the ADP measure of private employment in October indicates that the labour market recovery is starting... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Election result still mired in uncertainty We still don’t know the winner of the presidential election or which party will control the Senate, and, with President Donald Trump threatening to challenge the outcome, the legal wrangling and... 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty running high ahead of polling day Joe Biden and the Democrats still look on course to come out on top in Tuesday’s elections. But the surge in early voting means that election night could prove even more of a nail-biter than usual and... 30th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of recovery continues to slow We expect employment growth to have slowed further in October, with non-farm payrolls rising by 600,000 – albeit partly because of another drop-back in temporary employment as operations for the 2020... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Election and virus cloud the near-term outlook After rebounding by 30% annualised in the third quarter, we expect a more modest 4.5% gain in GDP in the fourth. But recent data suggest the risks to that forecast could lie to the upside, with... 22nd October 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update ‘Blue wave’ wouldn’t guarantee quick fiscal stimulus While the chances of a pre-election fiscal deal remain slim, markets appear to believe that a Democratic clean sweep of next month’s elections would result in a major post-election stimulus package... 21st October 2020 · 4 mins read
