US Economics Weekly Virus on the rise again as election approaches The renewed upturn in coronavirus infections poses a downside risk to the economy and could also have a late bearing on the Presidential election in a little over two weeks’ time. 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in September isn’t necessarily a sign that the broader economic recovery is in jeopardy when we know that retail sales rose strongly last month. But it is... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Virus remains key risk to near-term outlook The upturn in coronavirus infections in the Midwest isn’t in itself a major concern, but a more widespread resurgence in cases over the winter would raise the risks of the economic recovery going into... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more modest rise in core consumer prices in September, which came despite a further surge in used vehicle prices, suggests that the previous upward pressure on prices resulting from supply... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of M1 rose to a new record high in August but, with growth in the broader monetary aggregates now easing and bank loans continuing to decline, there is still little chance of... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug) The trade deficit widened further in August, as imports continued to rebound at a faster pace than exports but, with domestic production continuing to ramp up and overseas demand also recovering, we... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.4 in September, from 56.0, suggests that manufacturing output will continue to grow at a relatively faster pace, as producers catch up with the... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Elections, vaccine, and virus resurgence all key risks Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves... 1st October 2020 · 23 mins read
US Economics Weekly SCOTUS battle hits stimulus hopes as virus fears rise Concerns about the spread of the pandemic in Europe have continued to weigh on the stock market, but the battle over the Supreme Court could end up having a bigger bearing on the near-term outlook by... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in August was weaker than we had been expecting, but the underlying details nevertheless show that business equipment investment staged a V-shaped... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Pace of recovery begins to slow The pace of economic recovery has slowed in the last month, but that is arguably still an impressive result given the surge in coronavirus cases over the summer, and the more recent expiry of the... 17th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August was a bit weaker than we had expected, but isn’t a huge concern given that sales are now nearly 2% above their pre-pandemic level. The expiry of the... 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Fed’s actions will speak louder than its words The Fed’s new average inflation framework implies that more stimulus measures are on the way, but it isn’t clear if officials will be ready to make wholesale changes at next week’s FOMC meeting... 9th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slighter softer 1,371,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August was flattered by the hiring of 238,000 temporary workers for the 2020 Census and means that more than half of those who lost their... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Services weakness to weigh on employment The jobs report due on Friday should show employment continuing to rebound in August, but the ongoing weakness of demand in sectors like leisure and hospitality – which account for a higher share of... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index in August indicates that, while manufacturing production has continued to recover, it is still badly lagging the stronger turnaround in spending. The... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
