US Chart Pack Near-term shocks won’t knock economy off course Although the Boeing shutdown and the coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to the economy in the first quarter, there are mounting signs that underlying momentum in the economy is strengthening. We... 19th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan.) The unexpected weakness in underlying retail sales in January suggests that consumer spending is still struggling for momentum but, with jobs growth solid and consumer confidence resilient, we doubt... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the plunge in job openings a concern? The sharp fall in job openings over the past year appears to be a lagged response to the earlier slowdown in hiring intentions rather than a sign that labour market conditions are about to deteriorate... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued stability of core CPI inflation in January supports our view that the Fed will not be raising interest rates again for the foreseeable future. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Taking stock of Sanders’ surge The surge in Bernie Sanders’ perceived chances of the winning the Democratic nomination could yet weigh on the stock market if he continues to build momentum in upcoming primaries. Even so, our... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The sharp rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month high of 50.9 in January, from 47.8, echoes the message from the other surveys that the prospects for factory sector activity are... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The December durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment fell again in the fourth quarter. But the recent improvement in the survey evidence suggests it should soon start to rebound... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to sit on its hands in 2020 Signs of improvement in the activity data and the trade ceasefire with China should reassure Fed officials that they have now done enough to support the economy. We expect the fed funds target range... 22nd January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% fall in industrial production in December was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output. The latest surveys suggest that the tentative recovery in manufacturing output is a... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tide starting to turn for business investment There is mounting evidence to suggest that business investment growth is set to rebound, which should help drive overall GDP growth back above its potential pace in the second half of this year. 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Deregulation doing little to boost economy There is little to suggest that President Donald Trump’s deregulatory agenda has provided a significant boost to economic growth. While it may still be too soon to fully judge the impact, the... 9th January 2020 · 15 mins read
US Economics Update ISM too downbeat on manufacturing outlook The continued slide in the ISM manufacturing index is increasingly hard to explain, but the wider evidence suggests the more upbeat Markit manufacturing PMI is providing a more accurate gauge of... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.1bn in November, from $46.9bn, was driven by another fall in imports that will be reversed in the coming months. Nevertheless, net trade appears to have... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly 2020: how could it all go wrong? As the boost from this year’s loosening in financial conditions feeds through, we expect GDP growth to rebound more sharply than most others anticipate in the second half of 2020. But events this week... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Looser financial conditions to drive 2020 recovery GDP growth appears to have slowed slightly, to between 1.5% and 2.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the more stable global backdrop and the lagged impact of this year’s loosening in financial... 19th December 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One agreement not a big deal for the economy The “Phase One” trade deal apparently agreed with China is a small positive for the outlook to the extent that it removes the threat of further tariffs. But we doubt the rollback of existing tariffs... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
