US Economics Update Biden edges ahead in election race A lot could still change over the next five months but, as things stand, Joe Biden appears to be the favourite to win November’s presidential election. Biden’s policies are more moderate than some of... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 17.7% m/m rebound in retail sales in May indicates that, as the lockdowns were eased in many states, activity started to recover more quickly than we – and others – had been anticipating. As a... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the end of the $600 UI payments a major risk? The potential expiry of the expanded $600 weekly unemployment insurance payments at the end of July could weigh on consumption. But those payments look more likely to see at least a partial extension... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hold rates at near-zero for years There is still huge uncertainty over how quickly activity will recover from the pandemic, but it’s clear that the economy is set for an unprecedented period of near-zero interest rates. 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in core consumer prices in May was mainly driven by continued declines in travel-sensitive categories including airline fares and motor vehicle insurance. There is still little to... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 43.1 in May, from 41.5, echoes the message from the other surveys that factory-sector activity is recovering only gradually as lockdowns have started... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Lockdowns shutter one fifth of the economy The latest hard data suggest economic activity was running 20% below February levels in April, a far sharper downturn than the 2008/09 financial crisis and one compressed into just two months. With... 19th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 11.2% m/m fall in industrial production in April was bigger than at any point in the index’s 100-year history, including the Great Depression, the end of World War 2 and the Global Financial... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Wage growth set for sharp slowdown Although employment should partially rebound once lockdown measures are lifted, the pandemic is still likely to result in a sustained increase in labour market slack, which will push wage growth... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update State & local cash crunch could worsen recession The coronavirus-induced collapse in economic activity means that state & local government tax revenues will plunge over the coming months. With balanced budget rules in most states meaning that lower... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in March, from $39.8bn, came as a further fall in imports was outpaced by a plunge in exports, with both driven by a collapse in international travel and... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly April to mark the low point for economy It’s increasingly clear that the economy took an unprecedented hit in March and April. Barring a renewed national upsurge in coronavirus cases, however, the gradual lifting of containment measures... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP contraction only a taste of what’s to come The plunge in activity in the second half of March, as coronavirus restrictions proliferated, means that the first-quarter GDP data – due next week – will show output contracting for the first time in... 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Surveying the damage With the Fed having already slashed interest rates to zero and unveiled nine new lending programmes in recent weeks, officials will probably use next week’s FOMC meeting to take stock rather than to... 22nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus deals unprecedented blow to activity The early hard data for March confirmed an unprecedented hit to economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic, with retail sales seeing the sharpest monthly fall in the survey’s 30-year history and... 16th April 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 5.4% m/m plunge in industrial production in March, which was the sharpest monthly fall since 1946, highlights that while coronavirus containment measures have primarily slammed the brakes on... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read