US Chart Pack Strong start sets the tone for the rest of 2021 The economy has started 2021 on a stronger footing than we anticipated. The 5.3% surge in retail sales last month underlined just how quickly stimulus cheques fed through to stronger spending on big... 19th February 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Student debt forgiveness would do little for economy Even if a significant share of the $1.6trn of student loan debt owed to the Federal government was forgiven, it would provide only a limited boost to activity while driving a potentially sizable... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected 0.9% m/m rise in industrial production in January, driven by a 1% rise in manufacturing output, means that production is still lagging behind the recovery in goods... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in core CPI inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.6%, illustrates that price pressures remain weak, but base effects will drive both core and headline inflation back above 2% over the coming... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys paint more optimistic picture of labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain stronger than the headline data imply and add to the evidence that inflation will rebound this year. 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The muted 49,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates that the recent wave of COVID-19 cases is still weighing on the economy. But with infections now dropping back sharply and the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is unemployment higher than the headline data imply? Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s claim that the ‘true’ unemployment rate is still close to 10% only makes sense if the four million workers who left the labour force last year will return. It’s still too... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Easing credit standards to support consumer recovery The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey reveals that access to credit is improving for consumers, which will support an acceleration in consumption growth this year. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.7 in January was a little weaker than we had expected, but it remains close to the three-year high of 60.5 reached in December and at a level consistent... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing firm despite more positive outlook The rapidly accelerating vaccine rollout means that the economic outlook continues to brighten. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone in his post-FOMC press conference this week reinforces our... 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market treading water We estimate that non-farm payroll employment was broadly unchanged in January, but the recent fiscal support and drop-back in new virus cases suggest the labour market recovery will resume soon. 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal willingness to accommodate fiscal boost Incoming President Job Biden signed a flurry of executive orders during his first couple of days in office, but it remains to be seen whether the divided Senate will support his broader agenda... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Soft patch unlikely to last much longer Recent data show the current wave of virus infections weighing on the economy, with retail sales falling again in December and the labour market recovery stalling. We think fourth-quarter GDP growth... 21st January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden era begins with high hopes The inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden and new impeachment of President Donald Trump may signal a dramatic shift in the political landscape, but it remains to be seen whether hopes of a... 15th January 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The further slump in retail sales in December confirms that the continued surge in coronavirus infections is now weighing heavily on the economy and illustrates that, despite the building optimism... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
