US Economics Weekly Fed standing back as economy shifts into higher gear The economic data released this week reinforce our view that the recent fiscal stimulus and continued lifting of virus restrictions will drive a marked acceleration in GDP growth this year, while also... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The relatively modest 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in March, which was driven by a 2.7% rise in manufacturing output, was weaker than we had expected and illustrates that global supply... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to drive strong recovery The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if... 14th April 2021 · 24 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to $71.1bn in February, from $67.8bn, came as trade in both directions was hit by the severe winter weather. Import growth is on course to outpace exports again in... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly New spending plan to face rockier path With the next phase of President Joe Biden’s Recovery plan spending likely to take a considerable time to pass Congress and be largely financed by higher taxes, it looks set to have a far smaller... 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 64.7 in March, the highest level since 1983, echoes the message from the other surveys that demand is surging. But the details suggest that supply is... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The Fed’s asset purchases are fuelling a continued surge in the narrow money aggregates, but growth in both our M3 measure of broad money and bank lending remain on a downward trend. 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Easing restrictions to drive acceleration in jobs growth We expect the labour market recovery to have kicked into a higher gear in March, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 700,000. 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The fall in durable goods orders in February was mainly due to the disruption caused by the severe winter storms, which we already know weighed heavily on manufacturing output last month. The latest... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed banking on inflation staying muted The Fed made clear this week that it still has no plans to raise interest rates within the next three years. But that apparently rests on the belief that the strongest economic growth in nearly 40... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation to rise above 2% and stay there Base effects will temporarily drive headline and core CPI inflation up sharply over the coming months but, with underlying price pressures also starting to mount, we expect core CPI inflation to... 17th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 3.0% m/m fall in retail sales in February reflects the fading of the boost from the $900bn fiscal stimulus and disruption caused by the severe winter weather. Regardless, sales remain more than 4%... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in CPI inflation to 1.7% in February, from 1.4%, was largely due to higher energy prices, with core inflation still subdued. But base effects will push core inflation above 2% by April and... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus set to drive growth and inflation higher The sell-off in Treasuries continued this week, as Fed officials signalled that they are not overly concerned by rising yields and the Senate closed in on passing President Joe Biden’s $1.9trn fiscal... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Recovery back on track With virus cases falling and containment measures being eased, we expect the partial reopening of the leisure and hospitality sector to translate into a 500,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected rise in durable goods orders in January lifted them decisively above their pre-pandemic level, which is even more impressive given the still-subdued level of aircraft orders... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
