US Economics Update Omicron absenteeism a temporary economic threat The Omicron variant is less lethal than previous strains but, even if it doesn’t require the reintroduction of restrictions to mitigate the spread, the huge volume of new cases could still deal a... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the pace of industrial activity growth remained reasonably solid at the end of last year, but the survey came too early to capture the potentially significant... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The November durable goods and income & spending data are consistent with our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was 6.5% annualised, but point to a slowdown in early 2022. 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) With prices rising sharply last month, the muted 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests that consumption was little changed in real terms. That won’t stop the Fed from accelerating the pace of... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market slack falling to generational lows The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. That underlines the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1% point to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualised, and provides more evidence that... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The disappointing 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November suggests the labour market recovery was faltering even before the potential impact of the new Omicron variant, possibly due to the... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The November ISM manufacturing survey suggests that supply shortages are yet to ease significantly, but it does at least echo anecdotal reports that they are no longer getting worse. 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown ahead We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers look set to weigh on employment growth... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Build Back Better to have limited near-term benefits The Build Back Better Act, which was passed by the House today, would provide only a small boost to economic growth next year. With the economy already running up against capacity constraints and any... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The strong 1.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in October came as the unwinding of earlier hurricane-related disruption and a partial recovery in motor vehicle production boosted manufacturing... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 0.9% m/m surge in consumer prices in October illustrates that the upward pressure from supply shortages remains intense and that, even when those effects eventually fade, rising cyclical pressures... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $80.9bn in September, from $72.8bn, should soon start to reverse as oil exports recover from the disruption caused by Hurricane Ida. But ongoing global... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) While the headline ISM manufacturing index fell only slightly to 60.8 in October, from 61.1, the survey details add to the evidence that shortages are constraining activity and pushing up prices. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
