US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Shortages keep speed limit on payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by about 500,000 again in June, as labour supply shortages continue to roil the market. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed shifting back to risk management mode The upward revisions to the “dot plot” at this week’s FOMC meeting were hard to square with Fed officials’ continued belief that higher inflation will prove mostly transitory. Nevertheless, we also... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Talking about talking about tapering Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with recent data leaving the economy still some way from making... 9th June 2021 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour shortages may take some time to clear With labour shortages weighing on hiring there is even more uncertainty than usual over May’s employment report, but we estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a relatively subdued 500,000. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply shortages getting worse The strength of demand coupled with supply constraints have made shortages of many goods even worse, with the inventory to sales ratio falling to a record low in March. The surge in job openings and... 18th May 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The unchanged reading for retail sales in April is slightly stronger than it looks given that it follows an upwardly revised 10.7% m/m surge in March, and it suggests that the boost from the $1,400... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar) Although both exports and imports rebounded strongly in March, the former are still 5% below pre-pandemic levels whereas the latter are about 8% higher. As virus restrictions in other advanced... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic take-off already underway President Joe Biden’s Families Plan wouldn’t provide much of an additional boost, but the stimulus already in place should ensure that the economic recovery goes from strength to strength, with the... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Biden plan points to limited further fiscal expansion The $1.8trn in spending and tax credits in the American Families Plan would provide a relatively small boost to GDP growth as, like the earlier infrastructure proposals, it would be mostly paid for... 28th April 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rebound in underlying durable goods orders in March, which partly reflects the unwinding of earlier weather-related disruption, indicates that business equipment investment has continued to... 26th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Newfound optimism unlikely to change dovish stance We expect the statement following next week’s FOMC meeting to strike a more optimistic tone on the economic outlook, but Chair Jerome Powell is likely to emphasise in his press conference that any... 21st April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply struggling to keep up with red-hot demand The latest round of stimulus cheques and the easing of restrictions are driving a renewed resurgence in demand, with retail sales jumping by nearly 10% in March and the regional manufacturing surveys... 19th April 2021 · 8 mins read
